“Sellers are feeling the heat this summer as the economic recovery simmers down and home inventory levels climb,” says Pete Flint, co-founder and CEO of Trulia. “We’re seeing more and more sellers reduce their home listing prices to attract potential buyers, who definitely have the upper hand in negotiations this season. The slow start to the summer season is a major concern that we are heading towards a double-dip in the second half of this year.”

Our inventory has increased so price, condition, and location will still carry the day. New update as of 7/27/2010: stats being trotted out this morning in the national news feeds are comparing last years lows to this years highs and blowing off the pullback the market is experiencing as I write this. This is the danger in stats and how they are used! The fact is as a realtor in the trenches as I comp homes for new listing and set showings for current buyers I am seeing the same thing Trulia is-Prices have gone soft as buyer demand has dropped.

Here is the first part of the chart, call me with any questions. 719-233-6453 Mike Erhardt

Till next time,

MIke

Pretty standard increase in total actives and sales as we transition from spring into the "lets get moved before the kids start school in the fall" selling season. One trend of interest. Look at the new listing pullback after April. A bit of seller trepidation after the tax credit. Although showing traffic did take a hit right after the credit expired overall sales are up 3.6% from June 2009. This is still a bubble from closings on homes under contract in April that met the deadline and closed in June. Tracking sales and price over the next couple of months will be a better indicator of the overall market health as the effects of the tax credit go away.

Here's what I can tell you about the overall health of the current resale inventory. Trying to find homes to show buyers was a total pain at times last year. Many sellers were on the sidelines and a large percentage of listings were short sales and foreclosures.

Even with the pullback new listings are up 4.6% from June 2009. If pricing holds steady this trend should continue.

This will be the number I track over the next few months as we try to gage the effect of the tax credit going away.

To sum things up. If pricing holds steady and interest rates stay at the historic lows they are at currently. It is time to buy! Another factor is the rate of new foreclosures is slowing this past couple of months. Fewer foreclosure means less negative impact on current prices. All that will happen going foreword is both prices and interest rates will continue to creep up. If these trends ring true folks will look back in 2011 and say oops we missed it!

So once again, if you have credit and job security its time to buy. Call Me!

Until next time, Take care,

Mike

Stop by my open house Sat 7/10/2010 from 1-4 PM I will have the June market update (look for blog beg. next week) and bottles of my homemade cajun spice mix to hand out.

 But most important-come check out this house. Close to gate 20 Ft. Carson in the Hertitage sub-division. New carpet was just installed and a killer refinish of the Kitchen hardwood. For more details and photos check out this listing here on my website.

See you there,

MIke

Been lots of confusion this past couple of weeks about the tax credit extension. This is how things sit as of now. The extension applies only to folks under contract by the deadline that have not closed yet. With one very large exception. If you have been overseas military during a certain time frame the deadline has been extended for you for a year. Call me for details. To many folks contracted for short sales and foreclosures and could not get them closed before the deadline. Rather than have those buyers just walk the government gave out the extension. On the one hand this was a good thing as we took more distressed properties out the market. This was a stroke of luck as even with the new programs out there home buyers and sellers are still finding short sales to be a tough road most of the time.

At this time I am not hearing of any new tax credits comming down the pipeline. Of course we have not had any advanced notice in the past so well see how things shake out.

June market numbers should be posted in the next 5-7 days and I will post those when we get them.

Till next time,

MIke

As many of you know I have been a member of Colorado Business Leads for about 5 years. Great group of business owners. Just recieved heads up from Tara Patty, our photographer, that she is running her Senior High School photo special till the end of July. Complete your photo session by July 31 and recieve a set of 56 wallet size as a bonus. Tara can be reached at:

Contact Us

So, let me kick things off. One of my favorite things is green chili. You can put it on just about anything and I will eat it. With that in mind two of my favorite spots are the Magic Chef diner on Costilla and the Western Omelet over on Walnut. One word of warning, at Western if you ask they will bring you out a sample of both their hot and mild green chili. I like to - eat the heat- but sometimes their hot is holy %$#.

So hit me with your favorite spots so I can go check them out and I will post as I find more.

Till next time.

MIke 

Well, here we are in June with the tax credit behind us and the rest of this year ahead of us. Things got pretty crazy in the last couple of months leading up to the initial credit deadline.  It will be interesting to see by how much the numbers for May are inflated (if at all) compared to the rest of the summer.  So let’s have a look at some numbers from May.  As always my focus will be on resale single family vs. new, townhome/condo since that makes up the majority of our current market.

New Listings: 1506, down 18.6% from April but up from May 09 by 1.3% Total actives sit at 5118 up 12.3% from May 09. Overall inventory levels hit their low point last year as sellers sat on the sidelines waiting for market prices to stabilize. The current inventory is still very low compared to 06/07. The good news is there seems to be a better mix of regular resale, short sale, and foreclosure homes for buyers to pick from.  Short sales dominated last year’s market.  If you are a buyer in this market talk to your realtor or call me for a better idea of which type of home represents the best deal for your situation.

Prices: The median sales price from May09 to May 2010 was up 2.3% from $185,000 to $189,171 while the average price over the same time frame went up 7% from $213,326 to $228,292. So what does all this mean to sellers and buyers in this marketplace?

For sellers: It took sellers about a year to get real on pricing as the market tumbled back in 2008. It will take that same year for buyers making offers to realize the big “homes on the cheap” party is over.  As the economy and housing market continue to recover sellers will need to stay in the bottom 25% of their price range and do any fixes or upgrades needed to compete for sales. Sale numbers for May were at 844, 7.9% above last May, but still far below the numbers from 06/07.

For Buyers: Ya the tax credit is over (unless you were deployed military) get over it.  There are two areas of focus for buyers the rest of the year. First, inventory and prices have come back at modest levels. Inventory needed to come back from last year. There were times last year where it became hard to find listings in the MLS that I would even show my buyers. Prices have a long way to go to recover from the heyday 06/07 market so current market prices still represent a bargain for buyers. The second area is interest rates. Rates are still at record low levels. Any rate between 4.5% and 5.5% is a great deal. Nothing I repeat NOTHING kills a buyers buying power like an increase in rates during the home shopping process.

To summarize: For sellers the market is a bit better than last year but still tough. Staging and pricing are your friends. For buyers, prices that are still low, and a better inventory combined with very low interest rates scream great buying opportunity.  If you are thinking of buying call me yesterday before this year and this opportunity slip away.

Take care,

MIke

Been to long since I have updated this blog. Well I am back with a vengeance. Look for a final 2009 in review and Jan 2010 numbers to be posted over the next couple of weeks. It will be five to ten days before Jan numbers are posted.

One thing I can tell you. This looks to be our transition year. Inventories 250K and below are very low. Overall we finished the year under 4000 resale listings for the County. Lowest number in years. Probably 50% of the current listings are distressed properties. Many would be quality listings are folks sitting on the sidelines at this point waiting for the economy and housing market to recover.

If you are thinking of selling get on the market ASAP before the late spring rush. New late spring listing always outnumber the buyers comming into the market. With the state of the current compatition if you have location, price, and condition you will thump the market.

Seller or buyer give me a call. Lets sit down and work out a strategy for success in this years market.

Till next time,

MIke

New listings remain at around 1500 per month. This is a plateau we have been at most of this year. This has gone a long way in the face of increased sales with keeping our overall inventory levels down from last year.

Sales are up another 9.5% from last month and up 12% from this time last year. The increase in sales has helped to stabilize home prices which have increased about 3.5% from last month but are still down 6-8% from last year.

We still have 4662 active listings in the resale market so there is plenty of competition out there. For my seller that have heard me say “we are in a price war combined with a beauty contest” that still hold true.

I started warning my buyers in late spring that the market was changing and most of the screaming deals are in fact off the table, but it will still take us a couple more years to bring the market back. By back I mean to a healthy market not the rapid equity we saw a few years ago. There are still going to be to many foreclosures and short sales over the next 2-3 years that will make this market recovery a long steady climb.

Good news for sellers: prices have stabilized at 300K and below and inventories have dropped at 200K and below.

Good news for buyers: due to inventory levels at 300K and above, anyone wanting to move up to a larger home, nicer area, ect will be in great shape to do so over the next 6 months at least. As employment numbers change for the better the move up buyers 300-500K will again take over the market and this opportunity will go away.

Thanks for stopping by. I welcome your input and/or questions. Till next time take care.

If you click Has the market stabilized in My area? You will be transported to the Market snapshot report request. This is a very comprehensive on-line report emailed to you that will show you everything about the area around your home. here's the cool part. You will get to see what your neighbors really sold for! The report updates on a regular basis and is live MLS data from the Pikes Peak Association of Realtors. This is the same information I use as a Realtor to counsel my seller and buyers.

Speaking of buyers, you can use this same report to target homes in areas you are thinking of buying in to see what is going on with sales and price trends.

This is a FREE report. You can use it for as long as you like. Take it out for a spin and let me know what you think. I would love to here comments and feedback.

Till next time-take care.

New listings: 1530. Up 2.9% from May but down 5.6% from May 08. This is great. Less new listings = less inventory we have to sell of at some point.

Total Active Listings: 4661. Up 2.3% from last month but again down 20.6% from same time last year. Same as above, the faster the inventory declines the faster we get to a balanced market.

Sales: 829. Up 6% from last month and the same % as June 08. So with sales at the same % as last year and inventory down we are making headway on standing inventory.

So where are sales taking place right now. Most of the activity is below 300K and much of the credit for that goes to the first time buyer tax credit. Another area of activity is the expansion of FT. Carson and the soldiers coming in this year.

One of the biggest niches not being capitalized on is the move up buyer. If you own a home at 200K or below and have outgrown it or are just ready for something different now is the time. Scary in this economy but if you have the income and job stability you can sell at 200K or below and purchase at 300K or above and get a great deal. If this is you call me for details 719-233-6453.

As always I welcome your input or questions.

Till next time,

Mike Erhardt

Here is some great news for first time home buyers using a FHA loan to make their purchase. FHA will now allow the borrower to use the tax credit to establish a temporary bridge loan prior to closing. In doing so, the borrower can then use the tax credit at closing to A. make a larger down payment, B. Buy down their interest rate, C. Pay for closing costs. This is a new change and should help folks with the buying process. Just a reminder, the tax credit ends November 30^th. The typical purchase time frame is 15-30 days find a lender, find the right house and another 20-45 days to execute the contract. So if you are still sitting on the fence jump off and give me a call. Don’t let this great opportunity pass you by.

Take care,

Mike

Welcome back to another update. We continue to see steady progress with the worst of the market behind us. Here is a breakdown of the numbers for last month.

New Listings: 1487 new resale listings hit the market last month. This is a 7.5% increase from April but a (12.9%) decrease from May, 2008. This is great news. With less sellers coming into the market the inventory numbers have continued to drop this year. This will help to stabilize the market as we go forward.

Sales: 782 sales were reported for the month. This is a 22% increase from April. We also beat out May 2008 but only by 1.7%. Still, this is a good sign as we see growing sales and lowering inventory levels.

Total Actives: As of end of May we had 4558 resale homes in the market. This is up 0.7% from April but down (22%) from this time last year. Once again this shows the overall decrease in inventory that will help turn this market.

I saw a large uptick in Military buyers this past 2 months with the 250K and below Powers and Fountain areas seeing the most activity. We are seeing more news at the national level indicating the worst of this downturn is probably behind us. I would encourage anyone thinking of buying a home to pull the trigger in 2009 before this market heads the other way.

Call me.

New listings: 1496.

This number is a 22.3% increase from Feb 09 but still down 5.7% from the 1586 we added to the market this time last year. Less is good as we still have plenty of inventory to get through this year.

Sales: 523.

This is a 12.3% increase from Feb 09 but still down 18.7% from this time last year. Winners, homes under 200,000. Losers, everything else.

Total Active: 5108.

A modest increase of 3.2% from last month(this is a good thing) and down 10.7% from last year. A very good thing.

So all the numbers reflect some catching up to do with last years numbers, but for two months running we have moved up from Jan to Feb-Feb to March. Some of the factors-the tax credit-low rates-influx of troops to Carson. We still need job numbers to change and overall consumer confidence to come back before we start seeing movement in the upper price ranges. That of course translates into great deals for the buyers brave enough to tackle the upper price ranges.

As always I welcome you questions and comments. In addition, let me know if I can be of service. Here is the market graph for the year to date-take care.

So without further delay here is Hutche's feedback from last month.

I attended the Mortgage Lenders luncheon last month here in Colorado Springs and a Lt. Colonel Bolton shared with us what we have coming at us this year for growth down at Fort Carson.

2008 finished the year with 18,100 Military personnel based at Fort Carson with 27,500 family members for a combined total of 45,600 people.

2009 their will be 6,500 soldiers added to Fort Carson.  And there will be an additional 9,900 family members.  They are required to meet the objective of 70% completed by June 16th 2009.  This will be a grand total of 62,000 people here due to our military base.

It is the 4th Infantry Division coming up from Fort Hood Texas.  And we are also getting an Attack Aviation Reconnaissance Battalion as well.

We hopefully will feel an immediate impact to purchase business as the housing that they have been building on the base does not come close to handling this volume.  I don’t remember the specific percentage, but it was not impactful.

So there you have it. In addition I have a volunteer realtor shift comming up at the FT. Carson housing office in a couple of weeks and I will be checking in with those folks as always during my 1/2 day shift.

As always I welcome your questions and comments. take care.

MIke

Time to take a look back at the market stats for the month of February. 

New listings: 1223 resale homes came on the market last month. This is a 2% increase from Jan 09, but a 19.6% drop from Feb 2008. This is a significant drop from this time last year. If rates stay low and buyers continue to be active we will see the kind of decreases in inventory needed to get back to a balanced market!

Total active resale listings: We closed out Feb at 4418 listing. This is a 2.1% increase over Jan but an 8.8% decrease from Feb of 08. Once again this reflects a decrease in overall inventory levels needed to get back to balanced.

Sales: We sold 465 homes in the resale market for the month. This is an increase of 22.4% over a very lackluster sales number for Jan. It does represent a decrease of  6.6% for the same sales number for Feb 08.

So what does all this mean. Sales are at a slower pace from this time last year, however inventory is dropping at a faster rate. This is due to the huge drop in new listings coming into the market. Low interest rates, new soldiers coming to FT. Carson and the first time buyer credit should all help our market this year. How much is the million dollar question.

As always I welcome your questions and comments.

Till next time.

www.applywithkaren.com

www.coloradocapitalbank.com

Tax Credit for Homebuyers
First-time homebuyers who purchase homes from the start of the year
until the end of November 2009 may be eligible for the lower of an
$8,000 or 10% of the value of the home tax credit. Remember a tax credit
is very different than a tax deduction - a tax credit is equivalent to
money in your hand, as opposed to a tax deduction which only reduces
your taxable income.

The tax credit starts phasing out for couples with incomes above
$150,000 and single filers with incomes above $75,000. Buyers will have
to repay the credit if they sell their homes within three years.

Tax Credit Versus Tax Deduction

It's important to remember that the $8,000 tax credit is just that... a
tax credit. The benefit of a tax credit is that it's a dollar-for-dollar
tax reduction, rather than a reduction in a tax liability that would
only save you $1,000 to $1,500 when all was said and done. So, if a
homebuyer were to owe $8,000 in income taxes and would qualify for the
$8,000 tax credit, they would owe nothing.

Better still, the tax credit is refundable, which means the homebuyer
can receive a check for the credit if he or she has little income tax
liability. For example, if a homebuyer is liable for $4,000 in income
tax, he can offset that $4,000 with half of the tax credit... and still
receive a check for the remaining $4,000!

Phaseout Examples

According to the plan, the tax credit starts phasing out for couples
with incomes above $150,000 and single filers with incomes above
$75,000.

To break down what this phaseout means to homebuyers who are over those
amounts, the National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB) offers the
following examples:

Example 1: Assume that a married couple has a modified adjusted gross
income of $160,000. The applicable phaseout to qualify for the tax
credit is $150,000, and the couple is $10,000 over this amount. Dividing
$10,000 by $20,000 yields 0.5. When you subtract 0.5 from 1.0, the
result is 0.5. To determine the amount of the partial first-time
homebuyer tax credit that is available to this couple, multiply $8,000
by 0.5. The result is $4,000.

Example 2: Assume that an individual homebuyer has a modified adjusted
gross income of $88,000. The buyer's income exceeds $75,000 by $13,000.
Dividing $13,000 by $20,000 yields 0.65. When you subtract 0.65 from
1.0, the result is 0.35. Multiplying $8,000 by 0.35 shows that the buyer
is eligible for a partial tax credit of $2,800.

Remember, these are general examples. You should always consult your tax
advisor for information relating to your specific circumstances.

Homes that Qualify

The tax credit is applicable to any home that will be used as a
principle residence. Based on that guideline, qualifying homes include
single-family detached homes, as well as attached homes such as
townhouses and condominiums. In addition, manufactured or homes and
houseboats used for principle residence also qualify.

Higher Loan Amounts

More good news - there is an extension on the additional tier of
conforming loan amounts which had been first established in 2008.  This
tier of home loans are those greater than $417,000, and with a maximum
that depends on the area, but is not greater than $729,750.  These loans
will again be eligible for rates that are slightly higher than
conforming loan rates, but less expensive than the standard "jumbo" loan
rates.

Additional Housing-Related Provisions

Tax Incentives to Spur Energy Savings and Green Jobs - This provision is
designed to help promote energy-efficient investments in homes by
extending and expanding tax credits through 2010 for purchases such as
new furnaces, energy-efficient windows and doors, or insulation.

Landmark Energy Savings - This provision provides $5 Billion for energy
efficient improvements for more than one million modest-income homes
through weatherization. According to some estimates, this can help
modest-income families save an average of $350 a year on heating and air
conditioning bills.

Repairing Public Housing and Making Key Energy Efficiency Retrofits To
HUD-Assisted Housing-This provision provides a total of $6.3 Billion for
increasing energy efficiency in federally supported housing
programs.Specifically, it establishes a new program to upgrade
HUD-sponsored low-income housing (for elderly, disabled, and Section 8)
to increase energy efficiency, including new insulation, windows, and
frames.

Expanding Housing Assistance-This provision increases support for
several critical housing programs. It includes $2 Billion for the
Neighborhood Stabilization Program to help communities purchase and
rehabilitate foreclosed, vacant properties.

More Help for Homeowners in the Future
Another thing to keep an eye on in the coming weeks is President Obama's
plan to help struggling borrowers before they are faced with a default
on their mortgage.

According to reports, the Obama administration is discussing plans to
help borrowers who are struggling to stay afloat, but who have not yet
fallen behind on their payments. At this point, details are scarce;
however, reports indicate that President Obama is looking to spend
approximately $50 Billion to directly help homeowners before they face
foreclosure and financial disaster.

While this is good news for individual homeowners, it will likely be
good for the housing industry as a whole. That's because, assisting
struggling borrowers before they default should help stop the wave of
foreclosures, which are estimated to top two million this year. That, in
turn, will help stabilize home prices.